Book review
A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse
by Richard Heinberg
, Clairview, 2006T
his book forms a sequel to Heinberg’s earlier books, The Party’s Over – Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, which I reviewed in issue 11/4, and Power Down – Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World, which I reviewed in issue 12/6.In these, the author reviewed the research on the approaching ‘Peak Oil’ and the likely results, covering a wide range of effects and possible responses by states, industry and individuals. This book is aimed at both policy makers and the general public; its message needs to be widely heeded, to put pressure on policy makers to act with urgency, as well as for individual action.
In it, after an introduction outlining our heavy reliance on oil for energy, fertiliser, plastics and pharmaceuticals, he quotes various reports advocating early planning for the arrival of Peak Oil, arguing that this is needed to avoid severe impacts on society and the economy when it bites.
He reviews the latest predictions of the timing of the arrival of Peak Oil – most, within ten years or less, but some up to thirty years away – and describes the proposal for an Oil Depletion Protocol, which he has recently been introduced to. This would have nations agree to reduce their oil production and imports in accord to a consistent formula, to reduce price volatility, to ease planning for the economic future, and to reduce international competition for remaining oil resources. Recognising the probable difficulty of getting countries to sign up to such a Protocol, he then looks at the probable result of its absence, as predicted by numerous independent analysts: on the global economy, transport, food and agriculture, conflict, terrorism, etc. – before making a convincing case for adoption of the protocol, even if it is only by a few participating nations.
He discusses in some detail the Global Commons Institute’s proposal for ‘Contraction and Convergence’ of emissions of carbon dioxide and FEASTA’s modification of it to give everyone a per-capita allocation for the first two decades after C&C commences at a rate appropriate for year twenty, with the extra emissions permissible under the scheme forming a ‘convergence fund’ for allocation to national governments according to agreed criteria, allowing them to sell their permits to raise funds for projects to lower fossil fuel use. He also notes FEASTA’s criticism of the EU’s emissions trading system, which benefits the large polluters, and its advocacy of a world currency given into circulation, initially on a basis of population, not economic power.
He argues, however, that though there is urgent need to cut overall emissions of CO2 for the sake of limiting global warming, adoption of the Oil Depletion Protocol is a separate but complementary need, due to the effects of Peak Oil.
He goes on to detail the options and strategies open to people, industry and government to cope with the combined effects of reduced availability of oil and restrictions on emissions. Oil is ‘highly energy-dense’ and convenient – far more so than available alternatives. This makes it incomparable as a source of power for road vehicles – though for railways and tramways, electricity from renewable sources can be used.
The current promotion of ‘biofuel’ cannot go unchallenged; Richard details the impossibility of producing large quantities without severe impact on food production and old-growth forests. He discusses the potential contribution of other non-fossil energy sources (nuclear power is dismissed, for all the reasons now widely known), and hydrogen as an ‘energy store’ for transport, and concludes that they cannot replace the total energy now derived from oil; conservation, energy-efficiency and demand-reduction are essential.
He is not over-critical of the present economic aims (e.g. growth) of economists and politicians; tourism is seen as an ‘industry’, with Peak Oil having an ‘adverse impact’ on it. He does, however, point the need for urban design to recreate compact cities, with greater priority for walking and cycling.
Organic and permaculture farming is championed, with energy for the farm machinery made from biofuels made on site from crop residues or a small field of ‘fuel-crop’, which would reduce the energy required to transport fuel to the farm.
He sees John Bunzl’s ‘Simultaneous Policy’ campaign (
www.simpol.org.uk) as a possible way of putting pressure on politicians to support a widespread adoption of the Oil Depletion Protocol even if they fear economic costs if their country is only to be joined by few others.He then reports on various city initiatives in the US and Canada, and describes actions that individuals can take to reduce oil dependence, advocating that they be supported by a well-publicised, cooperative local program.
Appendices give a draft Oil Depletion Protocol and a list of sources for further information.
– Brian Leslie