Index

(From) Positive News from around the world Autumn 2005

How can we be sure that oil will become less abundant? Consider these simple facts. The oil industry started in America, the most explored region on the planet. Thus, their experience with oil will be repeated in other nations. Oil discovery in the US peaked in the 1930s, oil production peaked roughly 40 years later. Since 1970, the US has had to import more of it nearly every year in order to make up for its shortfall in domestic production. The same situation is happening elsewhere. Global discovery of oil peaked in 1960s. One after another, oil-exporting nations are reaching their all-time production peaks and falling into decline, becoming oil-importing nations. Between 18 and 24 of the world's 45 most important oil producing nations are, like the US and the UK, past peak. According to a growing chorus of oil experts, the global peak will arrive between now and 2010. In order to achieve a smooth transition, decades will be needed and we do not have decades before the peak comes.

Moreover, the available alternatives will be unlikely to be able to support the kinds of transportation, food and dwelling infrastructure that we now have; thus the transition will entail a complete redesign of industrial societies.

The challenging reality is that making society sustainable will require large scale reform of governments and economic systems. Mania for growth is not just a personal pathology or a problem of economic ideology; it is structurally embedded in national monetary systems. Currently, most money is loaned into existence by banks and is thus based on debt. It also implies a commitment

to pay interest on that debt. If the economy does not grow, new money will not be created to pay interest on existing loans; those loans will thus be defaulted upon and a crash occurs. Essentially, it is impossible to achieve a static or a controllably-contracting economy with a debt-based currency.

Therefore, if we are to achieve a reduced-scale, steady-state society, we will then need to change our monetary system to one that is not based on debt and interest. Meanwhile, it will be necessary for national governments and large economic institutions to implement systemic strategies for transforming both their agricultural and transportation infrastructure. Cities will need to sprout thousands of urban vegetable gardens, and a significant percentage of the urban population will have to be relocated to the countryside to help with the new agricultural production.

The suggestions above describe a fundamental change of direction for the industrial societies - from the larger, faster and more centralized, to the smaller, slower and more locally-based; from competition to co-operation; from boundless growth to self limitation. If such recommendations were all taken

seriously, they could lead to a world a century from now with fewer people using less energy per capita, all of it from renewable sources, while enjoying a quality of life that is enviable by the industrial urbanite of today. Human inventiveness could be put to the task of expanding artistic satisfaction, finding just and convivial social arrangements, and deepening the spiritual experience of being human.

Living in much smaller communities, people would enjoy having more control over their lives. Traveling less, they would have more sense of rootedness, and a feeling of being more at home in the natural world. Renewable energy sources would provide some conveniences, but not nearly on the scale of fossil-fuelled industrialism. This will not, however, be an automatic outcome of energy decline. Such a happy result can only come about through considerable effort, beginning immediately.

Extracted from Richard Heinberg's speech at the 'Fuelling the Future' Conference.